View Full Version : Call to comunity: GW Economy analysis
zweistein
17-12-2005, 15:33
(since no mods are around, ill take my chances, but imho this link is okay and by the rules)
Hi there,
I had this on mind for some time:
look here 1st http://gw.zweistein.cz/index.php
Its small web app, anyone can enter trader prices of certain selected goods wiki-style, all past prices will be stored, this will allow to plot graphs, do some predictions/analysis, and be nice offline price check (which could be embeeded into, i.e. RPG Traders).
As one cannot get this kind of info from GW directly without masively breaking EULA, this seems the only way.
I ask you, sometimes when you log off, look at traders at some of theese resources and enter current price in app.
Currently, there are no real filters against bad data.
(Also, ideas, bug reports, ... etc are welcome, post em in here. Also, id like you NOT to post this to other sites as refere checking will be done soon and only allowed referer will be gwonline.)
anything that is yours url wise is legit
Add more items. The list is understandably condenced to the most popular items, but I think it would benifit the community to add the most popular runes of all classes as well as green items. Just a thought.
Tristam Green
17-12-2005, 18:16
Hopefully the Auction House function in Chapter 2 will fix this.
TeeBeeNZ
17-12-2005, 21:51
Lets just hope its not one of those old crysty art house style things or its going to waste alot of peoples time and alot of ANs money.
It is is strange thouugh as Celestial sigils are cheaper at 25k than superior runes as well Dye.
trajiklord
17-12-2005, 22:22
It is is strange thouugh as Celestial sigils are cheaper at 25k than superior runes as well Dye.
it's not strange at all; think about it. there is a lack of new incoming players making guilds.
with 3 items popping out of chests in Halls, there's more chances for sigils to pop up. more sigils + less demand = lower prices.
makes sense to me...the economy is saturated with sigils, hence why the prices are plummeting to embarrassing levels.
the advantage to this is that a noob can more readily make a guild nowadays, which is also great for new players to get into, rather than have to farm for 90k for one.
snowkissed
17-12-2005, 22:29
Is the price listed according to platinum or gold? Rather unclear. And looks like people will be screwing around with this a lot.
MixedVariety
17-12-2005, 22:33
(since no mods are around, ill take my chances, but imho this link is okay and by the rules)
Now that's a darn good way to start off a thread and earn our good graces, eh?
Anyway, I don't quite understand the link. Is that your own personal server you're linking to? Some photo hosting website? Either way you still should have checked with Fallen_62 before posting it. I'll leave it for now, since it seems innocuous enough, though the thread may be moved to the trading forum eventually.
zweistein
17-12-2005, 23:13
Is the price listed according to platinum or gold? Rather unclear. And looks like people will be screwing around with this a lot.
Its in gold, a lot of thing will be fixes
Well, i think that i can filter out screwers quite well as i have some ideas about that.
(it was quick 2 hour hack :)
KCBeserk
17-12-2005, 23:29
if it was sum how tied into the actualy real time trader price THEN it would be great
Nice idea you have there but i would like to see all rare crafting materials there.
Theses days the subject is rubies / sapphires / monstrous materials / ectos / shards not scrolls or runes.
Would be great if you could do that material list to your program. :happy34:
Fallen_62
19-12-2005, 17:23
zweistein, you could have asked me in the thread where we were talking about this ;) Its a good way to see how it would be recieved if we were to put it onto our site. We will see how things go, and if that is taken well, I will think about putting something like that on our site.
Cymboric Treewalker
19-12-2005, 17:43
it's not strange at all; think about it. there is a lack of new incoming players making guilds.
with 3 items popping out of chests in Halls, there's more chances for sigils to pop up. more sigils + less demand = lower prices.
makes sense to me...the economy is saturated with sigils, hence why the prices are plummeting to embarrassing levels.
the advantage to this is that a noob can more readily make a guild nowadays, which is also great for new players to get into, rather than have to farm for 90k for one.
Ah, but what of guild halls growing tired of their old guild hall and changing?
zweistein
19-12-2005, 18:17
Nice idea you have there but i would like to see all rare crafting materials there.
Theses days the subject is rubies / sapphires / monstrous materials / ectos / shards not scrolls or runes.
Would be great if you could do that material list to your program. :happy34:
Sure, I can add any material on will, but then updating it would be pain :-).
GuildWarsGirlAmy
19-12-2005, 18:59
Huh? It says everything is 0 gold.
fantastic idea, but its very open to arse-whipes. I suggest you implement some sort of log-in thing, and only people who are allowed to can change the info, as a way of keeping what just happened from happening. (everything was 0, but their comming back to their real prices now).
--um104
Nice, i will update the prices when i get time :)
Cool project, when will graphs be up?
Fallen_62
19-12-2005, 22:35
fantastic idea, but its very open to arse-whipes. I suggest you implement some sort of log-in thing, and only people who are allowed to can change the info, as a way of keeping what just happened from happening. (everything was 0, but their comming back to their real prices now).
--um104
Yea, we noticed :( We were thinking that, if GWO hosts it (or something like it), we would either tie it into the forum login, or make an algorithm so that it can only go up and down so much per hour/day/whatever.
I think its a fantastic idea...
Will take some time to establish trends...
What I have noticed is that most things are coming up from a very low base recently... Thinks like Shards and Ecto's have been at really low prices recently... The only thing that seems to stay constant is the ridiculous price of black dye... lol... I am still trying to make sense in my mind why black dye would cost so much money... funny...
Anyway, good luck with this project, hopefully you can add items and more rare materials to it...
:xmas26:
Very good idea! I hope to see this tool expand soon (with graphs, more materials and so on...) :)
zweistein
20-12-2005, 14:18
ill have time for conding in thursday, so expect impoverd version (less suspectible to garfull data, more usefull things like graphs, requested materials added)
Noa Brightington
20-12-2005, 15:28
um, my question is, what prices are we going by?
The ones listed on the traders in towns, or by what people are able to trade BY?
Example: Ectos range around 12-11k currently, but anyone waiting a few moments at ToA dureing favor can pick one up for 10k or less depending on how desprate the seller gets. 9k is usually the min.
I got a drop, and sold a Sup absortion rune from one person, 90k.
NO negotiation needed. That's about what I expected to get for it, and that's how much he was willing to pay.
Green items and other collectors things would be VERY subjective.
Golds and purples could offer some unique combinations, so again, they'd be very subjective to the market.
Some feature suggestions:
1. Sell prices (e.g. the price the trader offers to you when you want to sell).
2. Graphical price history (GD lib ?)
3. Between each edit for each price you should enforce a gap of at least 5 minutes.
4. email alert when a specific price reaches a specific level (ectos for example are currently quite cheap, dropped from about 16k in late summer down to 11k now).
I see only one problem with the idea. Since it is out of game and relies on users input there is the issue of falsly reporting. Which could manipulate the prices. Now to those that know the market values we would recognise the manipulation but those that don't might believe the results that come about from the false entries.
I think with centralizing all trades in one place a auction house or whatnot as long as everyone in the game can see everything forsale. It would not be hard to impliment a price tracking system for items in game. I'm not sure the exact way it should be done as the list could be quite long if every item possibility were listed in a price list but perhaps there could be a query system.
Example lets say you are looking for a max damage fellblade 15%>50% with max fortitude and sundering 10/10. In the query NPC/interface you could choose the fellblade from a list of item name (with icon pics perhaps next to them). Then proceed to choose the upgrades and mods desired (in lists by all level of the mods upgrades so if you are looking for a 10/9 10/8 etc you can distiguish the prices on that level). Then it could then proceed to give you a quote lowest, highest, and average selling prices of all matching items sold to date. That way price checking would be convenient and also based on actual sales occuring rather than a user created price list.
reciprocal
21-12-2005, 06:54
Speaking of false manipulation you should check it out now. The prices have been totally set to ridiculous values by 'very nice' people.
Assuming that everybody visiting this forum would be a nice and genuine person is one-big-mistake.
zweistein
26-12-2005, 15:24
Improved version is online:
* precious stones and monstrous materials included (except eyes which seem to be always sold out)
* graphs for last 7 days (a bit crude scale , but it can be improved) - click on price
* resources are organized to groups
* some basic malign data prevention (edit is possible every 10 minutes, too big or too small prices cannot be entered - only changes of about 20% are allowed, ips and sessions are all logged and all data by one individual can be removed fast)
zweistein
28-12-2005, 15:28
(Seems like protections are working well, values vere not toyed since.)
zweistein
01-01-2006, 20:40
Some results at last!:
http://gw.zweistein.cz/graph.php?resource_id=6
http://gw.zweistein.cz/graph.php?resource_id=4
charrlover
01-01-2006, 23:10
Well Done Zweistein, I would like to congratulate you on your amazing achievement on behalf of the gw community! This is an extremely impressive project and I am happy to see that it has become so successful.
:xmas5: Excellent work :x-snow3:
If we get this going with all sorts of items like greens and such too perhaps this can be made a sticky?
And hopefully will be frequently updated with purchase prices.
zweistein
02-01-2006, 15:55
If we get this going with all sorts of items like greens and such too perhaps this can be made a sticky?
Problem with green prices is that they are unregulated in game, and one cannot depend on WTS/WTB messages to provide any clue about real current price.
One could create similar tool: everytime you succesfully sell or buy certain green, you enter that value to DB, and trade vaůue could be estimated as weighted average (recet sales with more weight than old ones.) Well, actually one could use RPGtraders information about finished trades for it, but RPGtraders are underused atm so they wont provide much information.
Even worse situation is for blues/purples/golds and their versions with rare skins, as they are uniquely contructed and their value is trully subjetive.
And hopefully will be frequently updated with purchase prices.
I hope so too :)
Problem with green prices is that they are unregulated in game, and one cannot depend on WTS/WTB messages to provide any clue about real current price.
One could create similar tool: everytime you succesfully sell or buy certain green, you enter that value to DB, and trade vaůue could be estimated as weighted average (recet sales with more weight than old ones.) Well, actually one could use RPGtraders information about finished trades for it, but RPGtraders are underused atm so they wont provide much information.
Yep thats what i had meant the actual purchased values be entered into it. Then we could see trends and all the nifty data it tracks.
Wytethorn
04-01-2006, 04:15
I got sort of interested in this and created a program that will use screenshots of trader windows and collect the prices from there. It should be considerably more difficult to fake screenshots.
Right now, it's pretty specific about the screenshot requirements: 1400x1050 resolution, small interface size, no anti-aliasing, and I've only made it work with the rare materials trader so far. Since the sigil trader, rune traders, and material traders all use the same format trade window, it won't be too difficult to adapt the program to those either.
The program is a bit complicated though. It has to interface with an open source OCR program called GOCR, which is not the best piece of software in the world but it works okay for this purpose.
I imagine this code will be the most useful if the procurement of screenshots could be made, ah, automatic. Then, it wouldn't require any of the users contributing at all, and the data will always be (fairly) reliable, bound by the limitations of OCR. It's currently able to recognize 92% of the stuff you give it.
zweistein
04-01-2006, 11:54
I got sort of interested in this and created a program that will use screenshots of trader windows and collect the prices from there. It should be considerably more difficult to fake screenshots.
Right now, it's pretty specific about the screenshot requirements: 1400x1050 resolution, small interface size, no anti-aliasing, and I've only made it work with the rare materials trader so far. Since the sigil trader, rune traders, and material traders all use the same format trade window, it won't be too difficult to adapt the program to those either.
The program is a bit complicated though. It has to interface with an open source OCR program called GOCR, which is not the best piece of software in the world but it works okay for this purpose.
I imagine this code will be the most useful if the procurement of screenshots could be made, ah, automatic. Then, it wouldn't require any of the users contributing at all, and the data will always be (fairly) reliable, bound by the limitations of OCR. It's currently able to recognize 92% of the stuff you give it.
Wow. Just wow.
I two questions:
What language is it in?
Will you make source public?
(If you want, I can give you some nice API to store your prased values. depending on language simple http call (and parsing page for results) should be fairly easy to implement.)
Wytethorn
05-01-2006, 10:19
The source is definitely public. The only problem is that it's written with C# (using my school's version of Visual Studio), so it basically requires .NET.... though I believe there's a free SDK that can be downloaded from Microsoft that has a compiler. I didn't write it with a *Nix friendly language because I was keeping open the possibility of *cough* incorporating an automatic screenshot acquisition routine in it, and that requires an OS that can run Guild Wars.
If you can give me an e-mail address or something via PM, I'll send what I have to you. I'm not quite sure about the best way to use the code... I think I can probably port it to a *Nix language if I have to and we can stick it on your server as part of your site, so people can submit screenshots instead. Then work will have to be done so it can handle stuff besides rare materials (which is not that hard). Then I can start thinking about a way to get the screenshots.
zweistein
05-01-2006, 23:01
The source is definitely public. The only problem is that it's written with C# (using my school's version of Visual Studio), so it basically requires .NET.... though I believe there's a free SDK that can be downloaded from Microsoft that has a compiler. I didn't write it with a *Nix friendly language because I was keeping open the possibility of *cough* incorporating an automatic screenshot acquisition routine in it, and that requires an OS that can run Guild Wars.
If you can give me an e-mail address or something via PM, I'll send what I have to you. I'm not quite sure about the best way to use the code... I think I can probably port it to a *Nix language if I have to and we can stick it on your server as part of your site, so people can submit screenshots instead. Then work will have to be done so it can handle stuff besides rare materials (which is not that hard). Then I can start thinking about a way to get the screenshots.
Well, i cant currently host it (my hosting provider has non-necotiable NO on external code and CGIs :-/, i cant run anything besides php and mysql in safe mode)
Maybe making it normal app (which will be trusted as source will be open) that will interface with my scripts ...
zweistein
02-02-2006, 19:34
Howdy. I just released new version for public use:
* GWI index is up (thou it seems that there are some spoiled data in rare materials that mess it up a bit)
Results:
It seems like prices for everything went a lot down since launch.
* Nices display of gold/platinum.
* Armor price calculator (currently filled with bogus armor sets :-) )
Elfshade
08-02-2006, 12:21
Great project I must say.
Wouldn't it be kewl if one day I could get my FoW armor having not slain a single Charr but playing the GW stock market instead?
(Maybe not really ... I guess my definition of kewl has been perverted by working in the same building as many banker types :grin: )
Would do a lot for animal rights though ... poor Charr ... wielding swords at an IQ lower than a poodle.
On a more serious note, the problem with trends is that AN will now and then change/patch/reset the economy, so trends may not be as significant as in the real world?
zweistein
02-03-2006, 12:53
Great project I must say.
Wouldn't it be kewl if one day I could get my FoW armor having not slain a single Charr but playing the GW stock market instead?
(Maybe not really ... I guess my definition of kewl has been perverted by working in the same building as many banker types :grin: )
Would do a lot for animal rights though ... poor Charr ... wielding swords at an IQ lower than a poodle.
On a more serious note, the problem with trends is that AN will now and then change/patch/reset the economy, so trends may not be as significant as in the real world?
Well, IMHO, trends are more of what players percieve is important, so if Anet restructures enonomy a little, trends will be still valid, with, for exmaple, traders prices reset, players will return prices to where they were before by trying to play market (i.e. when ecto prices were reset, people bought ectoes and thus pushed prices to previoos figures and even above in few days)
But it agreed, that big changes from chatepr to chapter (like avaited ussage of Rubies and Saphires) will change enonomy a lot, as new luxury and necesary items will appear... But still, huge part of economy will be unafected , or afectet with big delay (like sudden emergence of X farming build needing exact equipment.).
and BTW: I too find fun trading with materials on droknars stock exchange :), buy low, sell high. AMEN :]
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