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You're probably right.
But! Was there any obvious connection between the Lich and Shiro before Nightfall was released?
Oh well, I'm just desperate to see the stories of Abbadon and the dragons connected, so those first three chapters won't feel like a waste of time. I like feeling everything is connected.
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Abaddon's efforts to break out of the Realm of Torment into the world of Tyria were responsible for freeing Palawa Joko from his imprisonment, simply as an accidental byproduct. Who is to say that the weakening of reality was not the very thing that stirred up the Great Destroyer and triggered the awakening process for the ED? The entire world was affected by Nightfall and Joko may not have been the only horror released because of it.
Why would the story of Abaddon need to be connected to any threat to not be a "waste of time"? There's Kormir who's a direct byproduct of that story. The mursaat are reduced, Ascalon is no longer human, Orr sunk, Joko was freed, Usoku was allowed to be brought about due to Kisu's survival, the WM both rose and fell due to Abaddon's influence, the Flame Legion is outcasted, the Elonian ghosts are (supposedly) no longer haunting the Crystal Desert (Turai Ossa's isn't at least, unknown about the others)...
I can probably list more if I went into it deeper.
And no, Shiro and the Lich had no connection in the first two games alone. Nightfall connected the two and made Abaddon to be a puppeteer (something I'd rather not see as the main bad guy again, for originality).
Personally, I hate feeling like everything is connected. Though that isn't to say that there can't be connections.
(Also, what's up with the [Elonian Lore] and the like tags being added to most threads in the subforums?)