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05-01-2010, 10:07 #201
05-01-2010, 12:59 #202
there's plenty of problems associated with proxy data, particularly tree rings. In fact I believe it was on this forum that I linked yet another scandalous facet of the AGW practices, that being the use of a tiny, very flawed sample (rings from 12 trees referred to as the Yamal Briffa series) for representation of Asian historical temperatures, and that enlarging or revising the sample destroys the 'Hockey Stick' claim upon which nabbed and the CRU have planted their flag.
best sources were British naval records but they don't support the clique's claims. So they're discarded.
Oh, and how am I interpreting what you said incorrectly or misrepresenting it? You seemed to have not really been contesting my position, at least in your recent posts (I'm not about to go back through the thread scouring 3-week-old statements). I mean, unless (like nabbed) you share the mentality Jones shows in the quote below:
Originally Posted by Phil Jones
Last edited by jmervyn; 05-01-2010 at 13:07.
05-01-2010, 13:46 #203
OK, since this stalemate of who is the bigger moron and who can twist the words of others better, is kind of boring, what about commenting on this:
It seems to be a scientific fact, that the global temperature is rising in the last few decades (may it be because of human influence or not). With higher temperatures on a global perspective, more areas covered by snow and ice are melting & more water is evaporating into the atmosphere.
Should it be the responsibility of *enter your country's name here* government and its people to prepare for the changes that will result of the changes described above?
(write about 100 words )
05-01-2010, 15:05 #204
I'm enjoying watching you admit that the email isn't good evidence on its own (by you providing reasons tree-rings as proxys are not good ) and yet you constantly returning to it as "central to the conspiracy".
I think you should go back and check some of the controversy, since indeed the term Warm is used interchangeably with Warming.
The entire AGW fright fantasy rests on the claims by the clique that not only is warming out of the norm, but that it is both human-centric and accelerating.
It's also a good point for why the roaming average is used, rather than year on year. Statistics is a tricky subject, and can be used to show pretty much anything without meaning. The current cooling over the past couple of years is not sufficient to say GW (not AGW) has come to an end - We have to be careful, and I hate the extremists on both sides who refuse to look at the bigger picture.
Are you asking me as some sort of quiz, or is that what you are saying should be the start point? Even the records are spotty; one of the best sources were British naval records but they don't support the clique's claims. So they're discarded.
NOTE - I am not saying the conclusions are wrong.
I'm pointing out that nabbed is using an incredibly arrogant, hostile, shallow source
Oh, and how am I interpreting what you said incorrectly or misrepresenting it?
I mean, unless (like nabbed) you share the mentality Jones shows in the quote below:...Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it.
It's an honest point, surely. If you had data, would you release it to someone who was coming across as rather hostile to your position?
You bring up mentality, which is a very good point, then abandon it while trying to make a point?
05-01-2010, 16:28 #205
05-01-2010, 17:46 #206
J, I wrote a long post in response.
Then I realised, you're doing it again.
I won't argue with you, when you're out to create confrontation.
05-01-2010, 20:26 #207
06-01-2010, 09:48 #208
Scientific Method relies on presenting a hypothesis (which was arrived at using theory and previous observations), then testing its null-hypothesis (which is the opposing idea) to find evidence as to whether or not this new little bit of theory holds up.
Scientific Method is not looking at something, and using ignorance to 'disprove' it, which is what has been happening with the greater Climate Change (not just AGW) debate, and Evolution.
Very few, or rather none, of the articles or sites you've linked to, to show us just how wrong we are, actually delve into the "why" behind the 'trick' - thus their ignorance. They focus on the words 'trick' to 'hide the decline', without understanding 'why' science accepts that.
The most (I would say only real) damning thing in all the e-mails is where the author is talking about blocking the use of other peer-reviewed papers.
Now with you having agreed why the tree-ring proxy is poor, I'm sure you can understand why I say that e-mail, while it greatly affects the IPCC's conclusions (and their own fault for using such a small sample ), does not affect the greater Climate Change debate in anywhere newar the same way.
07-01-2010, 18:54 #209
clique has schemed at every opportunity to prevent testing of their hypotheses, on the simple basis that when they've slipped and been tested - their conclusions have been disproved. Spectacularly. By people who aren't even paleoclimatologists, but from other disciplines.
The clique has ensured that any peer review was only performed by those who would support it and them, and not look too closely at their methodology. This destroys the supposed credibility of the peer review process through exactly the same problem which I have previously argued with B.E. - that peer review is susceptible to groupthink and politics. Now, one could make a poor joke about paleoclimatologists not being good at math or computers, but it wouldn't work because of the reliance of their conclusions on both.
inherent in the code and modeling, which I identified prior to 2007 on the Diii OTF (the original seems to be gone now).
The honest eventuality would be egg on most AGW paleoclimatologist's faces as they have to publish corrections and retractions. This would be science operating as it is supposed to, because basing your work on others' flawed and dishonest work demands reexamination. But the likely eventuality, much as with Sir Cyril Burt's twin studies and already presaged by the incredibly corrupt claims of Pachauri and a couple of other IPCC outlets, is that the dishonesty will be deliberately ignored and groupthink will incorporate the CRU's claims much like the NBC Bush AWOL memos: as "Fake, but True".
07-01-2010, 22:34 #210
As an individual, I doubt these people will be given anything other than lecturer positions in further jobs. Research posts will probably be closed to them now.
Your assertions of ignorance are based on the assertions of the clique, rather than legitimate.
The huge majority of articles I've read (inlcuding ones you've posted or linked to) contain no science beyond pointing out the flaws (or incorrect statements) in the existing theory. Some actually go as far as providing the relevant scientific reasons, but none have outright disproved the existance of AGW (or indeed provided science to that effect), and most go on the "well, we've pointed out the flaws, so you know we're right" line of reasoning, which makes no scientific sense. To use your words, it's politics.
Since you claim(ed) to have a scientific background, this is something you should understand.
It equates to defending the existence of NBC weaponry in Iraq based on statements by the Bush administration. There <are> and <were> such weapons, but they weren't of the quantity or status claimed by the Executive. Does this mean that there isn't ignorance on the side of the skeptics? Of course not.
Which to someone's who iss 20 years old, living in the UK, and not part of the social elite or farming communities, suggests that Iraq did indeed have "bits and pieces" of WMDs, but probably nothing that could have been used within a useful timescale.
Oddly, we still have the UK gvt going on the line "there weren't any" while the media for once seems a little better informed.
But that side is vastly outweighed by the ignorance on the side of the true believers - beautifully exemplified by yourself, with your beliefs about sacking cities and blackpowder cannon being responsible for the MWP.
I have tried quite hard to avoid citing multiple articles referring to the "trick", because as I've stated until I'm sick of you bringing it up, I DON'T GIVE A RAT'S ARSE ABOUT THE 'TRICK' MEMO.Despite your unwillingness to address the completely damning code issue, that's still untrue. The e-mails referring to the attempts to avoid and subvert FoI are criminal in nature. Doubtless part of the reason the CRU has taken their FTP server offline (the one the mole posted the file on in the first place).
Unlike data, Ocean and Earth Scientists do tend to like to protect the code of their models. As for the potential criminal acts, that's a matter for the courts and any comments I make would be without the relevant knowledge or experience in the legal field. I suspect much the same as yours.
I understand your claim, but I don't mindlessly agree with it as you seem to expect me to. The studies contrived by the clique are at the root of so many other claims and data sets that one of two eventualities are going to be the outcome.
The clique has ensured that any peer review was only performed by those who would support it and them, and not look too closely at their methodology. This destroys the supposed credibility of the peer review process through exactly the same problem which I have previously argued with B.E. - that peer review is susceptible to groupthink and politics.
The honest eventuality would be egg on most AGW paleoclimatologist's faces as they have to publish corrections and retractions. This would be science operating as it is supposed to, because basing your work on others' flawed and dishonest work demands reexamination.
And that's not mentioning that such a process is subject to the available data (and something tells me most of the older data will be processed, not raw) and will take time.
But the likely eventuality, much as with Sir Cyril Burt's twin studies and already presaged by the incredibly corrupt claims of Pachauri and a couple of other IPCC outlets, is that the dishonesty will be deliberately ignored and groupthink will incorporate the CRU's claims much like the NBC Bush AWOL memos: as "Fake, but True".